P028: Predictive Modeling of Cheatgrass Invasion Risk for the Lake Tahoe Basin

This project examined the relationship between climate and the invasion of cheatgrass. In an effort to forecast if climate change and disturbance will trigger further cheatgrass establishment and spread, the environmental factors related to current cheatgrass distribution and abundance in the basin were modeled. A spatially-explicit predictive risk model of cheatgrass invasion was developed and applied under both the current climate and future climate scenarios. Disturbance parameters for disturbance were incorporated to improve model accuracy and predictive value.